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Will Donald Trump show up to the first Republican presidential debate?
Actually, this isn’t the most important question as candidates prepare for the Milwaukee stage Aug. 23.
The better one is this: Will any Republican beat Trump at his own game?
For eight years straight, Donald Trump has powerfully spoken to what he calls “the forgotten men and women of America.”
He zeroed in on the tens of millions of people — mostly Republicans, but also many Democrats and independents — falling behind in the 21st century.
From rust-belt towns to rural counties to working-class communities in the biggest cities, people flocked to Trump because he promised to do what no one else had done: be their champion.
The challenge is Trump wooed them with the language of resentment and retribution.
While he pays lip service to lifting up his most devoted followers, he says far more about punishing the people who hurt them — the deep state, greedy executives, the GOP establishment and so on.
This appeal to grievance is remarkably similar to liberal identity politics.
Where the left is fixated on making supposed oppressors pay, Trump is obsessed with attacking elites and enemies.
It defined him in 2016, even more in 2020, and it’s essentially all he’s doing in the buildup to 2024.
Trump is correct that a rapidly growing share of Americans are being excluded from society and ignored by our country’s decision-makers.
Yet a message of resentment and retribution is far from the only way to appeal to them, and it doesn’t have to be the most effective.
Imagine if a Republican candidate relentlessly addressed the majority of Americans who feel the government is ignoring them — not with promises of punishing their enemies but with a plan to empower them and ensure they share in America’s future.
No Republican has truly tried this approach.
Sure, some candidates are projecting optimism, especially Tim Scott, Nikki Haley and Mike Pence.
Yet none of them is speaking directly and consistently to the forgotten Americans; nor are they providing a comprehensive plan to lift up the overlooked people and parts of the country.
They’re mostly rhetorical when they need to speak to real people’s lives.
For that matter, even the most optimistic candidates routinely strike a pessimistic tone.
They frequently focus on what they oppose — Joe Biden, Hunter Biden, socialism, “the woke,” you name it — instead of singularly focusing on policy solutions to people’s problems.
Their messages are muddled when they need to be clear. Donald Trump’s all-negative, all-the-time message is crystal clear.
The Republican who provides passion and particulars, while going positive instead of negative, stands the best chance of beating Trump.
At the upcoming debate, the candidates need to speak directly to Americans: “I know you’re frustrated because DC doesn’t care about you. I do.
That’s why I’m going to fix your children’s school, make work pay more than welfare, stop all the corporate welfare and cronyism and get the government working for you, not against you.”
Then they need to unpack the specifics as much as possible.
Think big, bold plans to transform education through innovation and competition; wholesale cuts to the federal bureaucracy so the rest of America can create jobs; policies that lower the cost of health care while increasing access; and so much more.
If Republicans don’t provide real plans, they’ll never prove they can unleash every American’s innate potential.
They’ll only speak to Americans’ frustrations, which Trump will always do better than them.
Voters won’t hear this positive vision from Donald Trump, at least not in any detail.
Nor will they hear it from Democrats like Joe Biden.
The leading candidates in both parties will default to their message of resentment, from different angles. It’s definitely effective because it plays on a deep-seated human emotion.
But the American people have always been stirred by more than grievance.
Since our founding, we’ve been drawn to the promise of achievement and success — to the pursuit of happiness.
Insofar as we’ve focused on our “better angels,” America has lifted up everyone in extraordinary ways.
Republicans are waiting for a candidate to summon that spirit once again.
So are Americans of all political stripes, especially in black and Latino communities.
If a GOP candidate can channel people’s widespread fear of being left behind while laying out a path to help them get ahead, he or she can come out on top in both the primary and the general election.
At the first debate, Republicans should speak to Trump’s voters with his same intensity, yet with a profoundly different, uplifting vision.
Trump will win until someone beats him at his own game — and shows how every American can win.
John Tillman is CEO of the American Culture Project.
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